Monday, February 13, 2006

Beware of getting what you wish for

Haaretz headline: Iran resumes nuclear enrichment program

My response:

Text of my ad in today`s Washington Times
(national weekly edition)

Mark Klein, M.D.


Iran`s problem isn`t Israel but a resurgent Sunni Iraq. Likely Saddam, or some other Baathist thug, will take over a de facto Sunni state to start a civil war which could spill over into Iran. Nuclear weapons keep the peace. That`s why the West won the Cold War, Israel still exists, and bitter rivals India and Pakistan and the Koreas are getting along better.

(Then added) Israel`s interests are very badly represented in Washington. Blindly following the administration`s war mongering "wag the dog" strategy to distract the public from its failures could lead to a catastrophe for Israel. Israel`s got the "influence" it always wanted.

Beware of getting what you wish for!


Online exchange with Haaretz reader Mark Lincoln commenting on the above posting.

"The advent of a Shiite dominated Iraq has eased rather than increased the threat from Iraq.Relations between the Iraqi government and Iran are very cordial. The government of Iraq is turning to Iran for oil industry support, marketing, and has joined Iran in becoming the second Oil Exporting Nation to accept payment only in Euros and not Dollars.Despite the decision of the Bush administration to cut and run from Iraq, it is unlikely that the Sunni portions of the Iraqi resistance will be able to return the Baath party to power.If the US or Israel attacks Iran, al-Sadar and his Mufti Army (which controls units of the Iraqi Army) have pledged to attack US units in Iraq.This is why the Iranians joke about the "hostage crisis", i.e. the 150,000 Americans in Iraq."

My reply--

You`re right so long as the Shiites can keep the country together. I`m pessimistic the Shiites will succeed because the modern Iraq state was sloppily cobbled together by Britain after WWI out of the remnants of the Ottoman Empire. It`s three major elements hate and despise each other. Should things get out of hand we`ve got at least 3 factorial (3 x 2 x 1) civil war scenario! The operative words for Iraq are OY VEY IST MIR!

America has little choice but to "cut and run". No way we can win fighting a 21st century asymmetric war under 20th century laws of war. Americans simply won`t tolerate another Viet Nam catastrophe.

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